Inflammation/Coagulopathy/Immunology Responsive Index Predicts Poor COVID-19 Prognosis.

In the early stage of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), most cases are identified as mild or moderate illnesses. Approximately 20% of hospitalised patients become severe or critical at the middle or late stage of the disease. The predictors and risk factors for prognosis in those with mild or moderate disease remain to be determined. Of 694 patients with COVID-19, 231 patients with mild or moderate disease, who were hospitalised at 10 hospitals in Wenzhou and nearby counties in China, were enrolled in this retrospective study from 17 January to 20 March 2020. The outcomes of these patients included progression from mild/moderate illness to severe or critical conditions. Among the 231 patients, 49 (21.2%) had a poor prognosis in the hospital. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that higher inflammation/coagulopathy/immunology responsive index (ICIRI=[c-reactive protein × fibrinogen × D-dimer]/CD8 T cell count) on admission (OR=345.151, 95% CI=23.014-5176.318) was associated with increased odds ratios for poor prognosis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for ICIRI predicting severe and critical condition progression was 0.65 (95% CI=0.519-0.782) and 0.80 (95% CI=0.647-0.954), with cut-off values of 870.83 and 535.44, respectively. Conversely, age, sex, comorbidity, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, CD8 T cell count, and c-reactive protein, fibrinogen, and D-dimer levels alone at admission were not good predictors of poor prognosis in patients with mild or moderate COVID-19. At admission, a novel index, ICIRI, tends to be the most promising predictor of COVID-19 progression from mild or moderate illness to severe or critical conditions.

Inflammation/coagulopathy/fibrinolysis: Dynamic indicators of COVID-19 progression in patients with moderate COVID-19 in Wenzhou, China.

BACKGROUND: The majority of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) non-survivors meet the criteria for disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC). Although timely monitoring of clotting hemorrhagic development during the natural course of COVID-19 is critical for understanding pathogenesis, diagnosis, and treatment of the disease, however, limited data are available on the dynamic processes of inflammation/coagulopathy/fibrinolysis (ICF). METHODS: We monitored the dynamic progression of ICF in patients with moderate COVID-19. Out of 694 COVID-19 inpatients from 10 hospitals in Wenzhou, China, we selected 293 adult patients without comorbidities. These patients were divided into different daily cohorts according to the COVID-19 onset-time. Furthermore, data of 223 COVID-19 patients with comorbidities and 22 critical cases were analyzed. Retrospective data were extracted from electronic medical records. RESULTS: The virus-induced damages to pre-hospitalization patients triggered two ICF fluctuations during the 14-day course of the disease. C-reactive protein (CRP), fibrinogen, and D-dimer levels increased and peaked at day 5 (D) 5 and D9 during the 1st and 2nd fluctuations, respectively. The ICF activities were higher during the 2nd fluctuation. Although 12-day medication returned high CRP concentrations to normal and blocked fibrinogen increase, the D-dimer levels remained high on days 17 ±â€¯2 and 23 ±â€¯2 days of the COVID-19 course. Notably, although the oxygenation index, prothrombin time and activated partial thromboplastin time were within the normal range in critical COVID-19 patients at administration, 86% of these patients had a D-dimer level > 500 µg/L. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 is linked with chronic DIC, which could be responsible for the progression of the disease. Understanding and monitoring ICF progression during COVID-19 can help clinicians in identifying the stage of the disease quickly and accurately and administering suitable treatment.